Is There a Truck Driver Shortage? What ATA, BLS and FMCSA Data Show

Whether there is a truck driver shortage depends on the source. The American Trucking Associations put the shortage of qualified drivers at 78,800 in 2022, while Bureau of Labor Statistics economists found in 2019 that the labor market for truck drivers is not broken and that the strain sits in long-haul truckload, where turnover is very high. In 2026 FMCSA itself described the freight market as carrying excess capacity.

What does the ATA say about the driver shortage?

ATA, the largest trucking trade group, has published shortage estimates for years. Its workforce page describes “a shortage of qualified drivers that reached 78,800 in 2022.” It is an industry estimate of the gap between the drivers carriers want and the qualified drivers available, not a government count.

ATA has also stressed the word qualified. Its chief economist has said for years that carriers receive applicants but cannot hire most of them, and in 2025 trade press reported that ATA was describing the problem mainly as a shortage of quality drivers rather than of headcount.

What does BLS data say about truck driver jobs?

BLS counts truck drivers as an occupation and projects steady growth, not a hole. From its Occupational Outlook Handbook, updated in August 2026:

The openings figure is the one that sounds like a shortage. It mostly reflects churn: drivers moving to other occupations or retiring, and the replacements carriers need to hire. The full profile is in the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, and pay methods are compared in our guide to how truck drivers get paid.

What did the 2019 BLS study find?

In the March 2019 Monthly Labor Review, BLS economists Stephen Burks and Kristen Monaco asked whether the labor market for truck drivers is broken. Their answer was no. Using federal wage and employment data, they found that heavy truck drivers earned more than other blue-collar workers from 2003 through 2016 and that driver employment held steady or grew.

They placed the complaints in one segment. Long-distance truckload, which employs roughly one-sixth to one-fourth of heavy truck drivers, has very high turnover: industry survey data they cited put annual turnover at large truckload carriers at 94% on average from 1995 to 2017, against 11.7% at less-than-truckload carriers. Their reading was that some jobs in that segment are unattractive enough that drivers keep leaving, which looks like a shortage to the carriers trying to fill them.

Why is turnover so high at large truckload carriers?

Turnover is highest where the job asks the most time away from home for pay that varies with miles. Long-haul truckload drivers are usually paid per mile, spend days or weeks on the road and lose paid time waiting at docks. Many large carriers hire new CDL graduates, and new drivers leave at higher rates.

FMCSA’s February 2026 non-domiciled CDL rule repeated the pattern. It cited ATA data showing turnover for large truckload carriers of 81% to 90% between 2016 and 2020, and 69% to 79% at small truckload carriers. It also cited Tenstreet figures that about 30% of drivers leave a carrier within 3 months and only about 40% stay a full year. LTL carriers, whose drivers are more often home daily, have far lower turnover in the same industry surveys.

How did 2026 rules change the supply of drivers?

Two federal actions are shrinking the pool of eligible drivers:

• Non-domiciled CDLs. FMCSA’s final rule, effective March 16, 2026, limits these licenses to H-2A, H-2B and E-2 visa holders. FMCSA estimated about 200,000 current holders, expects states to issue about 6,000 a year under the new limits, and expects the remaining roughly 194,000 to leave the freight market over about five years as their licenses come up for renewal. Details are in our guide to the non-domiciled CDL rule.
• English proficiency. Since June 25, 2025, drivers who cannot meet the English standard in 49 CFR 391.11(b)(2) are placed out of service at roadside inspections, and FMCSA proposed writing that into its rules in August 2026. How the roadside test works is covered in the English proficiency guide.

FMCSA argued that the market can absorb the loss. In the same rule it wrote that carriers have been struggling with excess capacity since the freight recession began in 2022. Commenters on the rule, including state agencies and transit operators, warned of local shortages, especially for school bus and transit drivers.

Bottom line

The non-domiciled rule’s own estimate, about 194,000 drivers leaving over roughly five years, is larger than any shortage figure ATA has published, but it arrives gradually as licenses expire and during a period of excess truck capacity. Whether it tightens the market will show first in spot rates and in hiring at the long-haul truckload carriers that have always had the highest turnover; our guide to the freight market cycle lists the public indicators to watch.

FAQ

How many truck drivers are there in the US?

BLS counted 2,221,200 jobs for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers in 2025. That excludes light truck and delivery drivers, who are a separate occupation.

Is the truck driver shortage real?

ATA estimated a shortage of 78,800 qualified drivers in 2022. BLS researchers concluded in 2019 that the overall market works and that the problem is concentrated in high-turnover long-haul truckload jobs.

Why do trucking companies always seem to be hiring?

Because turnover at large truckload carriers has run between about 80% and 90% a year in ATA data, they must replace most of their drivers every year just to stay the same size.

Will the non-domiciled CDL rule cause a driver shortage?

FMCSA expects about 194,000 drivers to exit over roughly five years and argues that excess capacity will absorb it. Critics in the rulemaking warned of shortages in some regions and sectors.