ATA’s Costello: Shipper Spending Up 32% as Truck Capacity Shrinks
ATA chief economist Bob Costello says trucking is in an early, supply-driven recovery. Shipper spending rose 32% in Q3 while shipments stayed flat.
The freight market has turned, but only because trucking capacity has finally shrunk, American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello said in his annual economic and trucking update with U.S. Bank, as reported by Transport Topics. Shipments across all regions were roughly flat in the third quarter, while shipper spending jumped 32% from a year earlier.
For carriers and owner-operators who survived the long post-pandemic slump, that gap is the signal: shippers are paying more to move about the same amount of freight. Costello called it an early, supply-driven recovery and said he has never seen one quite like it.
Demand is still soft
Costello was blunt about the demand side. He said the freight market is “not super strong” overall and more uneven than broad economic numbers suggest. How a fleet is doing depends on what it hauls and who it competes with. He named aircraft production and equipment for data centers as sources of strength in factory output, and said retail sales and construction are mixed.
The pandemic freight boom left the industry with too many trucks once demand settled. Since then, carriers have dealt with falling rates and high costs, with driver wages the largest expense. Costello said companies did go out of business, but not quickly enough to bring capacity down to match demand, so most fleets never felt the cuts.
Enforcement pushed trucks off the road
Costello described a second phase that began around spring 2025, driven by new and stricter driver enforcement, court rulings and high diesel prices. According to Transport Topics, the Department of Transportation led the push by tightening enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses, English-language proficiency rules and driver training schools with poor track records. Customs and Border Protection is also working with DOT to stop illegal use of B-1 business visitor visas.
What it means for border states
The effect is strongest in states with heavy cross-border freight, Costello said, naming Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona. In Texas, shipments are down 12.9% so far this year, yet shipper spending is up 37%. Nationally, shipments were up slightly in the third quarter year over year and down slightly year to date.
For small carriers in those lanes, fewer competing trucks has meant more money per load even as volumes fell.
How long it can last
Costello said a recession is the main thing that could end the upturn, but he does not see one coming and said ATA will watch closely. He also does not expect elections, including the recent midterms or the next presidential race, to undo the enforcement drive, because much of it rests on administrative actions tied to safety.
He does not expect a big wave of new capacity either. Truck orders and sales at manufacturers have improved, he said, but replacement rates have been very low for the past couple of years, and qualified drivers remain hard to find.
Source: Transport Topics
